Undecided is the winner in the latest Monmouth University Poll of Republicans nationwide. Gun control and national security are top issues. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio seem to have the momentum now. “When asked to name who they would like to see as the party’s nominee for president, Republican and Republican-leaning voters are divided among commentator Dr. Ben Carson (11%), Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (10%), Bush (9%), Rubio (9%), and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (8%). Other preferences include Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (6%), Texas Senator Ted Cruz (5%), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (4%), former Texas Governor Rick Perry (4%), former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (3%), businesswoman Carly Fiorina (2%), South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham (2%), and businessman Donald Trump (2%). Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (1%), Ohio Governor John Kasich (1%), and former New York Governor George Pataki (0%) round out the list.
“None of these candidates scores higher than “undecided,” which clocks in at 20%. As one poll participant said, “I just don’t know where they stand on the issues that matter to me,” the poll said in a news release. Since the same poll in April Carson and Rubio have gained four points and others by dropped: Cruz (6 points), Trump (5 points), and Bush (4 points). The undecided portion of the GOP electorate has gone up by 6 points.
“You would be hard pressed to look at these results and identify an emerging top tier in the Republican field, let alone a so-called front runner,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
“Most Republican voters have a favorable (54%) opinion of Marco Rubio while just 13% hold an unfavorable one. This is up from 41% favorable and 18% unfavorable in April. Ben Carson’s ratings stand at 45% favorable and 12% unfavorable today, up from 39% favorable and 16% unfavorable in April. Carly Fiorina has also seen an increase in her ratings – now at 29% favorable and 18% unfavorable up from 18% favorable and 20% unfavorable, although a majority of GOP voters still have no opinion of her.
“Three candidates have seen a significant drop in their ratings over the past two months. This includes Jeb Bush – whose 40% favorable and 35% unfavorable ratings mark a dip from the 49% favorable and 31% unfavorable ratings he received in April; Rand Paul – currently at 39% favorable and 24% unfavorable compared to 47% favorable and 22% unfavorable in the prior poll; and Chris Christie – standing at 26% favorable and 43% unfavorable compared to 33% favorable and 42% unfavorable two months ago.
“Jeb Bush was supposed to take the stage with the aura of a favorite, but his poll numbers don’t support that. The GOP electorate overall is lukewarm toward him and the most conservative voters are even more negative,” said Murray.
Other candidates who suffer from a net negative rating among Republicans include Lindsey Graham at 17% favorable and 34% unfavorable and George Pataki at 14% favorable and 29% unfavorable. However, Donald Trump has the worst standing among GOP voters – with just 20% holding a favorable opinion of him compared to a majority of 55% who have an unfavorable view.
“Trump is scheduled to announce his intentions on Tuesday. It’s a safe bet that there will not be any wailing or gnashing of teeth among voters if he declines to grace the GOP field with his presence,” said Murray.
The poll also asked Republican voters how different issues would impact their vote in the nomination process. National security and gun control are the most likely to be used as litmus tests among six issue areas tested.
“Specifically, 78% of GOP voters say they would only support a Republican candidate who agrees with them on national security issues, just 17% would consider supporting a candidate who disagrees with them, and only 2% say this issue is not all that important in their vote. Similarly, 71% of GOP voters say they will only vote for someone who is likeminded on gun control, while 21% would consider supporting a candidate they disagree with, and only 6% say this issue is not important to them.”
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